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News/ GOVERNMENT NEWS

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by last three days

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2005-04-18

Analysis: Breaking diplomatic ice [12:53:00]

Four years ago, Pervez Musharraf drove out in a black-stretch limousine from an Agra hotel, after failing to come to an agreement with India's then premier, Atal Behari Vajpayee. On Monday, President Musharraf drove in the same Mercedes limousine to the residence of Mr Vajpayee, now in semi-retirement, after signing a statement with India's current leader, Manmohan Singh. It was perhaps his way of paying his respects to a man who had done his best to achieve a breakthrough in relations between India and Pakistan but left office before he could see it through. QUICK GUIDE Kashmir dispute So what has happened in the past four years to so vastly change relations between South Asia's nuclear rivals? In particular, with both sides clearly sticking to their long-held positions on the Kashmir dispute, why were both leaders visibly pleased with this mini-summit? President Musharraf summed it up in a breakfast meeting with Indian media editors on Monday when he said quite simply: "The world has changed." Geopolitical shift In 2001, the president was a military ruler who had seized power less than two years before. Both sides have shown flexibility and displayed pragmatism Former Indian diplomat MK Rasgotra Although firmly in command, he was perhaps an impatient ruler - unused to the nuances and niceties of international diplomacy and looking for instant results. But his world changed dramatically after the 11 September, 2001 attacks in the United States, forcing him to man the frontline in the international war on terror. Things have also changed across the border. Over the past couple of years, India's relationship with two major powers once closely allied with Pakistan has changed. India and the United States have developed a close economic and political relationship and Washington is now trying to sell Delhi military hardware. Perhaps more significantly, India has also improved ties with China - again using economic ties to foster an improved political relationship. Indian officials say privately that with Beijing and Washington on-side, it was only a matter of time before Islamabad changed its approach. Manmohan Singh (left) and Pervez Musharraf have support It's not surprising then to see that Monday's agreement is built on a foundation of business and trade ties. "Perhaps the most significant step is that both sides have opened trade across the Line of Control [that divides Indian- and Pakistani-administered Kashmir]," says Amit Baruah, diplomatic correspondent of India's The Hindu newspaper. And unlike the ill-fated Agra summit, which had been called in unseemly haste and with little groundwork on both sides, this visit came after careful preparation. Preparing ground The two sides have spent 16 months engaged in intense diplomacy. Several rounds of talks have taken place, issues have been thrashed out and a common lexicon is slowly evolving. That was clearly evident even before the president arrived in Delhi. In the days leading up to the visit, both Pervez Musharraf and Manmohan Singh spoke of converting the Line of Control into a "soft border". After more than 55 years, the two countries have decided that the Line of Control is not a line carved on stone but drawn on sand MJ Akbar Indian editor Both sides have not abandoned their positions but are prepared to accept the reality of the opposing view. "Our view is that the Line of Control can never become an international border - India's is that there can be no redrawing of the borders. Now let's talk solution," President Musharraf told the Indian media. "Both sides have shown flexibility and displayed pragmatism," says former Indian diplomat MK Rasgotra. "Something has happened between India and Pakistan that suggests the two warring neighbours are headed towards a new dawn," adds leading Indian newspaper editor, MJ Akbar. Bipartisan support Both sides recognise that there is a lot to be done and that the Kashmir puzzle will take a lot more time and effort to unravel. Kashmiris welcome the thaw in ties But most people believe that the recently launched bus service across the Line of Control, and the promise of more such services, is a major step forward. "After more than 55 years, the two countries have decided that the Line of Control is not a line carved on stone but drawn on sand," says MJ Akbar. And both leaders appear to have the support of people across the political spectrum or at least have neutralised potential opponents. On the Indian side, the peace process is viewed as a genuinely bipartisan movement. If Mr Vajpayee of the Hindu nationalist BJP is the author of the process, Manmohan Singh's Congress-led government has put its seal on it. And in Pakistan, the alliance of Islamic parties which have been openly critical of India's hold on Kashmir over the years have opted to maintain a strategic silence. "The two leaders have committed themselves to never return to acrimony," says Amit Baruah. "It is up to the people of both countries to hold them to this commitment."

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2005

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